A Log-Periodic Power Law (LPPL) model is used to see whether the price action for Bitcoin follows a log-periodic oscillation model for a speculative bubble and predicting its subsequent "crash".
Bitcoin (BTC/USD) price is modeled as a stochastic process following a fractional Brownian motion (fBm) demonstrated via a Hurst exponent (H) to try and measure the long term memory in the time series. Monte Carlo simulations were performed on this model to extend historical data and forecast Bitcoin price. Out of sample simulation results showed accuracy was to within ~10% of current prices. The 180 day (6 month) most probable (median) forward looking Bitcoin price prediction is ~USD14,211 by May 2018 and implying upside risk of ~95%. In addition, within this time frame Quantile risk/loss estimates show that there is only a 5% tail-end risk of a drop back to the ~$2000 price level (or a ~70% price drop).
With major coins now down an average of 52% off all time highs, we designed a simple screen to help identify coins that may have now fallen to attractive price points. The results highlight privacy coins (ZCash, Dash & Monero) and NEO GAS as 4 of the most interesting at current levels. Sample: - We... Continue Reading →
Only monkeys pick bottoms they tell me...undeterred, I back tested 25 popular market timing indicators on my Bloomberg terminal. Pretty much everything gets blown out on the short side, so I focused mostly on finding long indicators. One of the top performers is a simple 20 day Rate of Change strategy. The parameters I set... Continue Reading →
Bitcoin has very consistent seasonality. The chart below marks each year's annual high in green and each year's low in red - then plots those points within each year from 2010 - present (measured in number of days). The normal pattern is for lows to be set early in the year and highs set towards... Continue Reading →
Given the sudden influx of new money that has been chasing "cheap Altcoins", to a new investor Bitcoin's ~$15,000 price tag may appear unaffordable compared to an Altcoin priced at ~$1. So the aim is to remove the "unit bias" of each Altcoin by repricing them using the same current Total Coin Supply as Bitcoin.
Conclusion: * I think we're nearing the tail end of this correction * The median max drawdown of previous pullbacks is -35% - The trough this time a round was a larger than normal -45% (Dec 22's intraday low) * The median total duration of previous pullbacks is 23.5 days - As of today...we're already... Continue Reading →