Digital Asset Weekly, June 29

Digital Assets continued to slide following up on last week’s declines with another -15% drop this week.  Declines this week saw the total Digital Asset market cap fall to a new YTD low of US$236B.  Declines were extremely broad based with 96% of the top 200 coins by market cap finishing the week lower.  Selling was most aggressive in smaller coins/tokens lifting Bitcoin dominance to ~ 2.5 month high of almost 43%.

News flow this week was thin.  One of the key highlights of the week, though, was continued broadening of fiat fungibility with Binance moving to set up their first crypto/fiat business and Coinbase offering GBP deposit/withdrawal services.  Flow based headlines were also dominant with reports of $250M of Tether inflows and some very large transactions being processed on the Bitcoin blockchain.

Looking into the next week, we continue to expect Bitcoin to lead broader market direction.  The dominant pattern continues to be the symmetric triangle Bitcoin has been working its way through over the past few months.  Scrolling through charts circulating this week, it looks like the market is expecting a reasonably strong floor at the $5,500 level.  That said, this seems to be an increasingly consensus view that still doesn’t have a capitulation feel to it. Given that the average floor of the previous 4 bear markets was a retracement of ~79% – would not rule out a move back to the low $4,000 level.  Would prefer to be back foot at the current price level until we’ve seen more of a capitulation.  Think that a dollar cost averaging strategy probably makes more sense at the moment rather than trying to time the bottom and losing one’s fingers to falling knives.

Read the full report here: Digital Asset Weekly June 29 2018

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