BTC Pullback Analysis – Are We There Yet?

Conclusion:
* I think we’re nearing the tail end of this correction
* The median max drawdown of previous pullbacks is -35%
– The trough this time a round was a larger than normal -45% (Dec 22’s intraday low)
* The median total duration of previous pullbacks is 23.5 days
– As of today…we’re already at T+20 from BTC’s intraday ATH

I have been watching a number of indicators recently that I think suggest we’re setting up for another aggressive move in BTC.

One of these is the consistency of previous pullbacks in terms of duration and degree.   

The chart & table below show the major pullbacks from 2017 to present.  I don’t think there’s too much point in looking at data previous to 2017 because of how much BTC has grown in terms of infrastructure, liquidity and investor composition over the past 12 or so months.

Chart 1.  Major Pullbacks, Duration and Degree – 2017 to Current.

BTC Pullback Chart Jan11 2018

Table 1.  Major Pullbacks, Duration and Degree – 2017 to Current.
– The median max drawdown is -34%
– The lows are normally front end load with a median value of 10 days
– The median number of days it takes BTC to start setting new highs is 23.5 days

BTC Pullback Table Jan11 2018

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